Does 2 in a row make a trend?

In August of 2008 we were happy to report that as of the end of July we (then Superior Home Loans) had surpassed all of our production numbers from the previous year (2007).  We were pleasantly surprised of course to find that even during a contracting market our business was growing! Apparently, it’s that time of year again.  Indeed by the end of July 2009 we have surpassed our production numbers from 2008!  This is a result of hard work to be sure.  We’ve spent a lot of time working on our process and we’ve been fortunate to see the fruit of our labor.

We do have other good news to report.  In what appears to be another continuing positive trend, more good signs for housing were released this morning.  The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (a national index) rose to a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in June – the 2nd month in a row.  Prices rose in 18 of the 20 cities used in the survey.  And the index showed that prices for the 2nd quarter rose by 2.9%, the first quarterly increase in 3 years.  While home prices have risen it’s important to keep some perspective and prices are still down 15.4% compared to a year ago. 

While we are very pleased to see good housing numbers, we must remember that some of the improvement may be coming from people who would have purchased in 2010 that are moving up their buying decisions to take advantage of lower rates and tax credits before they expire.  This means that we may actually see a little dip in the housing numbers early next year.  So the positive trend is very welcome but should be taken with a grain of salt.  It’s perhaps best thought of for now as “housing not getting worse”, instead of “housing improving rapidly”.

Remember, the first time home buyer credit offer expires on November 30.  If you or someone you know is hoping to receive this benefit, they must close on a primary home before December 1st, 2009. 

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